Without Liberal preferences it may be hard for Labor to hold

Wills is an inner Melbourne seat covering Brunswick, Coburg, Pascoe Vale, Fawkner, Hadfield and Glenroy.

In 2016 the Labor party suffered a swing of –10.32% (2 Party Preferred) against the greens. If the Greens can gain another +9.76%, or another 9,185 votes they could likely gain the seat. To make matters worse for the Labor party the Liberal candidate has recently resigned due to homophobic comments, which means without the Liberal preferences it could be very difficult to hold it at all.

21.93% of the total votes first preference was Liberal. 61.27% of their second preference went to Labor and the other 38.73% went to the Greens. Because Australia’s lower house voting system works on a preferential voting system, voters get to decide where they put their preferences. The AEC requires all voters to number every single box on the ballot paper

The Greens candidate Adam Pulford who is gay which in the irony of the situation could work in his favour. When the same-sex marriage survey was done for Wills, 70% of the electorate said Yes. However, it’s difficult to know if this will translate likely into more votes.

(Adam Pulford the Greens Candidate for Wills)

One Labor operative to the Sydney Morning Herald said the seat will be more difficult to hold and that votes were likely to “spray” in directions they could not predict.

The south of the electorate, Greens strongholds below Moreland road have a majority over 50% except one. However in the north of the electorate, the more north you go the more Labor you get, with some booths in Fawkner, Hadfield having over 70% of the vote. The North-South divide will likely be an interesting one with voters in the south caring moring about issues like Refugee rights, Adani and climate change, while North voters may be more likely to care about the cost of living.

It doesn’t necessarily mean it will be an easy seat for the Greens to steal. In the nearby electorate of Cooper (formerly known as Batman), the Labor party managed to fight off the Greens tide wave with their former ACTU Union candidate Ged Kearney in the Batman by-election. The seat previously held a margin of 1% against the Greens and Labor has managed to get a bigger hold of 4.38%.

(Peter Khalil the Labor candidate for Wills)

Although to make things worse for Labor they’ve had swings against them in both the South and the North in the state elections. The Greens took Brunswick with a swing of 2.8%.+Sure?

Pascoe Vale also in the north which covers Glenroy, Pascoe Vale, and Coburg also had a swing of 8.2% to independent front runner Oscar Yildiz who captured 23.5% of the primary vote who pitched to voters that Labor doesn’t do anything for the north. It will be interesting to note if this sentiment is continued on into the federal election.+Sure?

Recently I talked to a Greens volunteer about their chances in Will. He said it looked good however he was scared that the Labor party handing out fake hot to vote cards. Last year a group handed out fake HTV cards in Northcote.+Sure?

Likely if there aren’t any stuff ups the Greens could have this seat in their bag, however, in an election campaign anything could happen. We’ll just have to wait till May 18th.