The Greens, Liberal & Labor all go head to head in this middle-class seat.

Currently held by Labor with a slim margin of 1.2% after the recent redistribution this seat is up to play a lot more than the other. Largely it looks like a three-way contest between The Greens, Liberals and Labor. With the incumbent Michael Danby retiring it could be anyone’s game.

The Liberals have it in their sights as one of the few seats they could take from Labor in Victoria, except maybe for the seat of Indi in the far north-east. If the trend is anything to go by it looks like Labor is going to be in the dust. The growing middle-class population has taken away traditional Labor voters.

abcdefhiklmnopqrstuvwxyzRetrieving data. Please wait.abcdefhiklmnopqrstuvwxyzElectionFirst Preference %020406080198319841987199019931996199820012004200720102013201650%LaborLiberalGreensMelbourne Ports First Preference Votes by Party 1983-2016(Vertical lines indicate redistributions)

(Via the ABC)

The Greens claim this seat is within reach only needing 477 votes. Considering the preferences in 2016 election they would require 954 votes, however, with the recent redistribution this may also be tight This is also considering the Liberal voter doesn’t rise, and the Labor party can hold their position.

With a round of recent gaffes, it does seem like an uphill battle for the Liberals. Kate Ashmore has emerged to have views that private schools are superior and that former PM Julia Gillard lacked empathy for being childless.

On another occasion, she accused the Labor candidate Josh Burns of not being proud to be Jewish for not hanging a Jewish mezuzah in his office. Considering this electorate has a Jewish population around 10% it’s difficult to know if this will make a difference.

(Via The SMH)

There’s still a bit more time though till May 18th and we’re probably likely to see some more scandals emerge.